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For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to adopt a strong approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making statements of "significant consequences" during the summer should Vladimir Putin persisted obstructing peace negotiations, the former president ultimately imposed considerable penalties on the Russian primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision substantially affected Putin's ability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

But, through his latest detailed peace proposal for the conflict, that was developed by both nations' representatives excluding Ukraine's or European participation, Trump has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin stance.

Rewarding Aggression

This initiative would in practice reward the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the plan in reality compromise that same independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate experience, Trump seems to view the war as a mere border issue, as if ceding Putin a section of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the leader. However, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a damaged swath of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that his growing dictatorship denies them.

Border Concessions

While keeping in place the currently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would compel Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. In addition to favoring Russia with land that its troops have been unable to seize in exceeding a decade of conflict, this surrender would make Ukraine's defenses critically compromised.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that represent a critical barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Putin a open path to Kyiv should he eventually choose to renew the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would enable future hostilities simpler for the Russian military, Trump would require the nation to reduce the numbers of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's plan places no such constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's efforts to portray the nation's democratically elected government as Nazis, the plan declares: "Every extremist doctrine and actions must be condemned and prohibited." As if to underscore this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a peace deal. However, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin jeopardize his regime by holding elections in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that Putin has breached similar treaties in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a truce and a return of captured territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should anyone believe Putin this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international defense commitments. Although the proposal threatens a "strong joint defense action" should the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the details include unclear to troubling. The plan would not just prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude alliance nations from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the reassurance force, likely headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Russia from rebuilding his reduced forces, restocking, and reinvading.

International Concern

Another parallel deal according to sources would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any future "significant, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." This implies a military response. But unlike a strong national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, such as Trump, to act militarily to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not