Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
