NFL Play-Off Picture: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Final Week.
Entering the final week of the NFL regular season, just two play-off spots remain open. Yet, far more is at stake, including the coveted top seeds in each conference and four division titles.
The schedule makers have crafted a dramatic ending, with the two remaining play-off positions to be decided in two direct winner-take-all contests.
Current NFL Play-Off Standings
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The winner of the Steelers-Ravens game will secure the fourth seed and a home-field advantage in the wildcard round. Meanwhile, the Bills and the Chargers are set as wildcard entrants.
Houston require a victory and a Jacksonville defeat to climb from fifth to third. Denver will secure the top seed with a win, but a loss could open the door for New England or the Jaguars to claim it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The NFC South will be claimed by the victor of the Carolina-Tampa Bay matchup, granting them the fourth seed. Notably, Carolina could still win the divisional title even with a loss, contingent on other results.
The Packers are locked into the seventh spot. The marquee matchup, though, is the clash for the NFC's top seed between Seattle and the 49ers, with a first-round bye and home playoff games hanging in the balance.
How the NFL Postseason Works
The top seed in each conference earns a valuable first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
During Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six playoff teams compete: the second seed hosts the seventh, #3 plays #6, and fourth hosts fifth.
In the Divisional Round, the #1 seeds join the competition, hosting the weakest remaining seed. The AFC and NFC championship games are then hosted by the best remaining team, underscoring the immense value of earning that top spot.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This bitter grudge match reaches its climax in the last contest of the NFL season. With the AFC North and a play-off berth at stake, this is a genuine elimination situation.
Pittsburgh have been up and down this season, while the Ravens started poorly but remain in the hunt. Player availability could be decisive: The Steelers may be without star receiver their top wideout, while Baltimore's quarterback their MVP QB is a doubt with a back injury.
Star rusher the powerful back might emerge as the difference-maker for Baltimore in what promises to be a physical, defensive struggle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the division title is on the line when Seattle visits San Francisco. The winner claims the NFC's top seed and the road to the championship game that it provides.
This matchup features an explosive 49ers offense against a dominant Seahawks defense. With QB Brock Purdy came back, San Francisco have been the NFL's highest scorers. On the other hand, Seattle's defense is rated among the best in the league.
The Seahawks' quarterback their passer must avoid costly turnovers that have haunted him this year. The team that wins this clash earns a massive advantage for the playoff run.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this contest with strong form. The Buccaneers have lost seven of eight, while the Panthers have squandered recent opportunities to secure the division.
For Carolina it's straightforward: win and they're in. For Tampa Bay, the scenario is more complex. Even with a win, they require help from the Falcons-Saints matchup to steal the division crown.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos hold the cards for the #1 AFC spot. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team expected to sit starters seals it.
Should Denver falter, the door opens for the Patriots. A Patriots win combined with a Broncos loss would give the #1 ranking to Bill Belichick's team.
Jacksonville are the long shot. They need a triumph and defeats for the Broncos and Patriots to achieve an unlikely ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jaguars loss could see them passed by the Texans in the division standings.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
