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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent strugglers ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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